Monday, 24 November 2014

BHP Billiton & Friends Life - separation & marriage

Monday Morsels: BHP Billiton have released a demerger update, along with some management re-shuffling as the deckchairs are re-arranged and occupied. This statement confirms that the demerger is on track for completion in the first half of 2015. They have also started to flesh out a new dividend policy. They are saying that BHP Billiton will not re-base its dividend post demerger “implying a higher payout ratio”. Following demerger they remain “committed to steadily increasing or at least maintaining its dividend per share in US dollar terms”. Further reference is also made to “cash generating capacity” being key to the future dividend policy. Now, BHP Billiton today yields 4.5% at 1640p (pretty much a five year low). When Newco is spun out, the dividend yield on BHP will go up (it’s the maths….). You will then also hold a piece of paper in Newco, for which I have not seen a dividend policy yet, but it seems reasonable to expect something. So total dividend streams could get a leg up. This relative confidence from BHP comes at a time of weakness in many commodity prices and seems to be a significant sign that future cash allocation will favour returns to shareholders. All this I see as encouraging for those brave enough to buy a bit of a ‘knife catch’.

Aviva have been flushed out and announced terms to acquire Friends Life (a.k.a Resolution) in an all paper deal. As Aviva re-structures it will re-build its slashed dividend, but at the moment it is a somewhat meagre 3%. Friends Life has been paying out a full dividend, being a 5.75% yield. The main rationale for Aviva seems to be accessing FL’s cashflow, so I would presume that Aviva’s lower yield will prevail and FL holders will see an income drop. Aviva’s prospects still look a bit cloudy in a challenging market, so FL holders facing that uncertainty and a lower income stream may decide that cashing out after a smart share price rise is attractive. (Neil Cumming, 24th November 2014)


These comments are not a personal recommendation to deal. Any investments can fall as well as rise in value, so you could get back less than you invest. I may have a financial interest in some of the stocks written about. www.dividendpower.co.uk or e-mail at info@dividendpower.co.uk  

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