Wednesday, 5 November 2014

Imperial Tobacco - not up in smoke on Bonfire Night


Imperial Tobacco: Tobacco stocks are called many nasty things, with politicians queueing up to tax and chastise them, but they do throw off oodles of cash. Volumes were down 7% and revenues were down 6% in the year to 30th September, but the never ending cost cutting helped push operating profits up 5%. The current plan is to squeeze out £300m per annum of total savings by fiscal year 2018, which is about 10% of current operating profits. So far they are up to £60m p.a. As an aside, their volumes were still 294bn sticks last year, or just over 40 per man, woman, child and baby on this planet. And that is just from the world’s fourth largest producer, although a $7.1bn deal is in train to buy several brands from Reynolds America and Lorillard, with completion due in Spring 2015. At that stage they will own Blu, giving them a better position in the e-cigarette market.
Anyway, earnings per share were down 3% at 203.4p, in line with consensus, but at constant exchange rates were up 2%. With healthy cash conversion at 91% and net debt down 11% to £8.1bn, the dividend was increased to 128.1p. The company will take on more debt with the US acquisitions next year, but all the same they have announced a plan to move to quarterly dividend payments, with a commitment to increase the 2014/15 dividend by at least 10%. After a good reaction to these results the shares are around 2820p, so the historic PE is 13.9x and the prospective yield is 5.0%. It sticks in the throat, but for income growth investors Imperial Tobacco is a solid portfolio candidate. The day will come when repeating the revenue down and dividend up routine will fail, but Chief Executive, Alison Cooper, is clearly determined that it won’t be on her watch.  (Neil Cumming, 5th November 2014)
These comments are not a personal recommendation to deal. Any investments can fall as well as rise in value, so you could get back less than you invest. I may have a financial interest in some of the stocks written about.

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